A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
